Here you will find the news monitor that D.Econosignal have done to track down the latest and most relevant economic events:
Macro | Global | October 28th, 2019: The European Union accepted to extend Brexit until 31st January with the objective of making the UK exit less catastrophic than it appears. This new agreement was accorded 3 days before the time due to the Brexit completed. After this news, sterling pound appreciated against most currency.
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Macro | Global | October 27th, 2019: Argentinian peso depreciated again against US dollar, after the confirmation of Alberto Fernández as new president of Argentina. Its triumph was with 48%, against 40.5% for Mauricio Macri, exceed the previous 47% against 32% previously registered, respectively, stopping the currency depreciation.
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Sectorial | Construction | October 25th, 2019: Mexico´s government will approve 873 bids for 8,767 million pesos to support the economy. The most of it will be for 2020 destined to the conservation of roads, bridges, recostruction and reparation. This measures are part of the package that the government announced in August to stimulate the economy.
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Macro | ECB | October 24th, 2019: European Central Bank decided to keep its interest rate in a minimum ratio of -0.5%, alligned with the markets expectations; also, it confirmed that the stimulus will start in November trying to impulse prices and the economy. This was the last meeting for Mario Draghi, that will be substitued by Lagarde.
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Macro | Economic Growth | October 24th, 2019: Mexico´s economic growth contracted again in August, -0.4% annual rate, after a contraction of 0.6% in July. In its monthly comparisson the economy showed a slightly recovery of 0.1%, but it wasn´t enough to mitigates the -0.2% in July. In the inside, the industrial activity showed the biggest recovery.
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Macro | Inflation | October 24th, 2019: Mexico´s monthly inflation was 0.40% in October´s first fortnight, below consensus estimates of 0.43%. In its components, core inflation was 0.13% and non core was 1.24%. In its annual comparisson, inflation still 3.0%, while core inflation went to 3.68% from 3.72%; a positive result that will strength Banxico´s economic policy decission.
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Macro | Forex | October 23rd, 2019: Mexican peso still its positive trajectory against US dollar, with several days of appreciaition in a row. During October, mexican peso has appreciated 3.1%, making the mexican currency one of the three currencies of emerging markets with the best endurance along the whole month.
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Macro | Expectations | October 23rd, 2019: In the last survey for economic specialists made by Citi, analysts cutted their forecasts of economic growth for 2019 to 0.3%, from 0.4% in the last survey; 2020 forecast still unchanged in 1.3%. Inflation forecast still 3.1% for 2019 and 3.5% for 2020. Interest rate forecast still 7.25% for 2019.
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Macro | Germany | October 22nd, 2019: The Bundesbank, Germany´s Federal Bank, reported that Germany´s economy keeps decelerating in 2019 third quarter, increasing the probability that the country faces a recession with two quarters of economic contraction in a row. Industrial activity summed 10 months in contraction; in August it fell 4.0% annual rate.
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Macro | China | October 21st, 2019: China´s economy grew 6.0% annual rate in 2019 third quarter, its lowest since 1992 and diminishing from the economic growth of 2019 second quarter of 6.2%. This result has to be with a contraction in investments, followed by a lowest confidence of the investors because of the effects of the trade war.
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Macro | USMCA | October 18th, 2019: Mexico´s Government compromised resources to achieve a new labour reform and raise up the workers salaries, in fact, there are available resources already 2020´s budget to this end. Mexico´s labour situation is one the most controvertial in the agreement and it raise doubts between the Democrats in the U.S. Chamber, this brings signals that the USMCA could be approved this year.
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Industries | Infrastructure | October 17th, 2019: After the federal court revoqued the last suspension that prevent the construction of Santa Lucía´s airport, the Secretary of Transports confirmed that the construction will start during the week and it could be concluded in 2021. The resources for this project were already available in 2019´s public budget.
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Macro | Brexit | October 17th, 2019: After various years of negotiations, the European Union and the United Kingdom reached an agreement according to Brexit; now the British Parliament should approve it, another hard step in this process. The markets are optimistic, but in a limited way, sterling pound and the british value market worked gains.
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Macro | Politics | October 16th, 2019: Mexico´s Senate approved the "revocatory vow", this will give the population the capability of reelect or remove a president in its first 3 years; now it will go under the revision of deputys to its approval. If all conditions are acomplished, mexicans can evaluate Mr. López Obrador in March 2022.
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Macro | Jobs | October 15th, 2019: According to Mexico´s Social Services Institute, there were created 145,416 new jobs in September, compared to the previous month, this is the best result since October 2018. This data helped disipating the weakness in the labour market showed during this year; during the administration of president López Obrador have been created 109,500 jobs.
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Macro | IMF | October 15th, 2019: The IMF lowered its forecast for the global economic growth in 2019 to 3.0%, from 3.2% forcasted in July; for 2020 the forcast was reduced to 3.4%, from 3.5%. This adjustment was because of the global generalized slowdown, also the imports tariffs and commercial uncertainty. Mexico´s forecasted growth for 2019 lowered to 0.4%, from 0.9% and for 2020 went from 1.9% to 1.3%.
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Macro | Mexico | October 14th, 2019: Moody's lowered its 2019 forcasted economic growth for Mexico to 0.2%, from 0.5%, due to the falling in investment and private consumption during 2019. The estimates for 2020 were also lowered to 1.3%, from 1.5% expected in August. This forecast is still below the consensus of analysts estimates in 0.4%.
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Macro | Global | October 14th, 2019: The U.S. and China came to a partial agreement. New tariffs that will start tomorrow have been posponed, but the ones imposed in September still applying and the ones programmed until December still in the agenda. financial markets reacted with low confidence to this agreement and expect no during this year.
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Macro | Interes rate | October 10th, 2019: Jonathan Heath and Gerardo Esquivel where the members that voted for a 50 bp cut to the interest rate in the last meeting of Banxico, revealed today´s reports. Both said that even core infaltion still high, the worldwide trend of cutting rates and the stability of mexican economy freed a higher margin.
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Macro | Inflation | October 9th, 2019: Mexico´s inflation was 0.26% MoM in September, according to what analysts expected, while core inflation was 0.30%, over 0.29% esitmated. In its annual comparisson, general inflation was 3.0%, the lowest in the last 3 years; while core component reached its lowest variation of 3.75% since March, non core was 0.7% MoM, its lowest ever.
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Macro | Infraestructure | October 8th, 2019: A federal judge revoque one of the many protections that held the construction of the new mexican airport in Santa Lucia. This broke a padlock and gave impulse to one of the most important projects for the current administration. The mexican government needs that all protection ber revoqued previously to start the construction; besides, there is another protection for the canceled airport in Texcoco.
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Macro | Markets | October 7th, 2019: The U.S. and China restarted a new series of talks to come into an agreement that avoids the recent conflict to keep escalating. The conversations will last two days and are a response to the $250 thousand dollars in tariffs anticipated by president Donald Trump. Markets are falling.
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Macro | Investment | October 7th, 2019: In July, Mexico´s investment kept falling down with a contraction of 0.7% MoM and 9.1% annual rate, its worst result since november 2009. This was explained for the weakness of its two main components: investment in construction felt down 1.5% m/m and 6.9% y/y, while machinery and equipment felt 0.7% m/m and 12.8% y/y. This result is on line with the contraction of the industrial activity.
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Macro | Consumption | October 7th, 2019: Mexico´s private consumption grew 0.03% in July, compared to the previous month, when the consumption of goods and services felt down. In its annual comparisson, private consumption grew 1.0%, less than 1.3% registered previous month. This result confirms the weakness of mexican economy.
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Macro | Jobs | October 4th, 2019: The U.S. economy added 136 thousand new jobs in August, slighty below the 140 thousand expected. Although, the jobs created in July results in a reviewed growth, from 130 thousand in the previous report to 168 thousand; also, unemployment rate felt to a 50 year minimum of 3.5%. This is positive data and mitigates the desaceleration shadow.
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Macro | Consumer Confidence | October 3rd, 2019: Mexico´s consumer confidence is recovering apparently after a few months going down. In September the index grew 1.0% monthly and 3.0% annually (unseasonled data). In the inside, 4 of the 5 components grew against August, while the probability of purchasing durabe goods kept unchanged.
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Macro | Trade war | October 2nd, 2019: WTO has authorized the U.S. new tariffs around $7.5 t million dollars as compensation of the grants that the European Union have given to Airbus. After this, it is expected an increase of import taxes to the UE that could derivate in a new conflict. Markets reacted in a negative way.
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Macro | Remittances | October 1st, 2019: Mexico´s remittances grew 3.2% MoM in August, reavhing a new historical maximum of $3,375 million dollars. In its annual comparisson the increase was 17.0%, after the 14.4% annual growth in July. Summed up over this year, remittances are $23,899 million dollars, an 8.7% growth againstl last year, this represents good news for private consumption.
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Macro | Expectations | October 1st, 2019: In Banxico´s September specialists survey, analysts reduced their inflation forecast for 2019 to 3.1%, from 3.4% in August. Now, They are anticipating a 7.5% interest rate for this year, from 7.75% of last survey and 7.0% for next year, keeping it unchanged. GDP´s estimates for 2019 slightly decreased to 0.46%, from 0.50% and 2020´s to 1.38%, from 1.40%.
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Macro | Public Finance | September 30th, 2019: According to Mexico´s Public Finance report, income felt 2.1% real annual rate in the first 8 months of 2019, while expenditures felt 4.0% real annual rate, under programmed expenditure. This let the primary balance, which result in a surplus, widened 65.5% against the same period of last year, equal to 1.1% GDP.
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Macro | Interest rate | September 26th, 2019: Bank of Mexico decided to cut interest rate in 25 bp to 7.75%, this was qhat the market expected; even two members voted to reduced it until 7.5%. Besides the members keep remarking risks for economy growth and inflation, this are not risky enough to avoid another cut during the last months of this year.
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Macro | Economic Growth | September 26th, 2019: Mexico´s economy contracted 0.6% annual rate in July, its worst result since November 2009 and against market expectations that was expecting an expansion. By its components, industrial activities contracted by its ninth month in a row, 2.8% annual rate, while tertiary activities grew only 0.2%, its lowest since last March.
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Macro | Politics | September 25th, 2019: Democrat Congresswoman leader, Nancy Pelosi, announced the start of a judgement for president Donald Trump, this is the first step to start the road that will go until the impeachment of president Trump. This news came out just one year before the elections of 2020. U.S. Treasury yields grew 4 bp to 1.69%.
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Macro | Inflation | September 24th, 2019: Mexico´s inflation was 0.17% for September´s first fortnight, below the 0.24% expected, derived from the 0.19% of the core component and 0.13% of the non core component. With this annual inflation was 2.99%, it´s lowest level since 2016, thanks to a contraction in the energy prices of 0.78%, the deepest contraction ever.
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Macro | Aggregate Demand | September 20th, 2019: Mexico´s Aggregate Demand contracted 0.2% in its quarterly comparisson. This contraction was explained by 2.4% of the fixed investment compensated by a 0.2% QoQ growth of private consumption and a 3.0% QoQ of exports. For the first semester of the year the economy registered a 0.2% annual growth, but a 0.4% contraction compared to the previous semester.
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Macro | BOE | September 19th, 2019: Bank of England decided to keep its interest rate unchanged in 0.75%, alligned with markets expectatives. The central Bank keeps worried about Brexit and its effects over British economy, also because of the increasing risks of the trade war between U.S. and China that has affected global production.
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Macro | FED | September 18th, 2019: U.S. FED cut its interest rate for the second time in 2019, this cut was 25 bp to a new range between 1.75% and 2.00%. Tree members were against this decission, two of them voted to keep this rate unchanged and other wanted to cut it even more, in 50 bp. In the message sent vy the Board we can see that members aren´t considering another cut throug the year, but markets do.
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Macro | FED | September 18th, 2019: U.S. FED updated its forecasts. GDP´s estimates grew to 2.2%, from 2.1% in June, for 2020 it was unchanged in 2.0%. PCE inflation remain unchanged, 1.5% for 2019 and 1.9% to 2020. Interest rate was adjusted down, hoping that it will remain in 1.9% for 2019 and 2020, since 2.4% and 2.1% estimates previously.
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Macro | Markets | September 17th, 2019: Mexican assets had a positive day, the mexican stock market grew 1.0% and mexican peso appreciated 0.7% against the U.S. dollar. This was impulsed by the risen up of the oil prices, that represents good news for Pemex and for Mexico´s Government amount of fiscal income.
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Sectors | Oil and gas | September 16th, 2019: Oil price grew 15% after some attacks to oil facilities of Saudi Aramco in Saudi Arabia, the worlds biggest oil company. This attack stopped the production of 5.7 million barrels per day. To compensate this shortage in oil offer, president Trump authorized the liberation of some oil inventories, stabilizing oil prices.
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Macro | Jobs | September 13th, 2019: In August the mexican economy created 36,631 new jobs, this is a 68% less than last year and represents the worst result since 2009. By states, Morelos, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Durango and Guerrero registered contractions, while Nayarit, Aguascalientes, Campeche and Querétaro grew.
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Macro | ECB | September 12th, 2019: In its last policy meeting the ECBcut its rate to -0.5% from -0.4% and announced a new stimulus program by undefinetely time starting on November, focusing on improve eurozone economy. This measures overceome what analysts expected, there were analysts who belived that the Bank is short of alternatives to impulse the region.
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Macro | Industry | September 11th, 2019: Mexico´s industrial production contracted 0.4% MoM in July, going back from the 1.1% registered in June. In the inside, 3 of 4 mainly activities contracted, mining and construction showed the biggest fall. On the positive side, manufacturing grew 0.2% m/m. In its annual comparisson, industry registered its ninth month in contraction.
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Macro | Pemex | September 11th, 2019: Mexican Government announced another $5,000 million dollars to help Pemex; this resources will be destined to the support bonds that will be dued between 2020 and 2023. This money inyection is announced a few days after the Government published the financial support that Pemex will recieve during 2020, including $4,400 million dollar cash and tax exentions for the oil company.
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Macro | Pemex | September 10th, 2019: After Hacienda revealed that they´re expecting a production of 1.95 million barrels per day for 2020, the Secretary said that Pemex will start in November and until the 1Q20 new bidding processes called CIEPS, as a public-private association; besides the capital that will be invested by the government.
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Macro | Fiscal | September 10th, 2019: Economic Package of 2020 will increase IEPS for cigarrettes and sugar products, as soda, syrups and powder; also, taxes will be charged to Uber, Google, Airbnb, among others, with purposes of increasing taxation. Unfortunately, it didn´t consider new measures to tax the informal economy that exists in Mexico.
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Macro | Inflation | September 9th, 2019: Mexico´s inflation decreased 0.02% MoM in August, after a contraction of 0.7% m/m in the core component that helped against the non core inflation growth of 0.20%. With this, the general inflation was 3.16% annual rate, its lowest level since October 2016. Even tough data is positive, core inflation keeps unwilling to go down.
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Macro | Fiscal | September 8th, 2019: Hacienda delivered the Economic Package for 2020; they are expecting a rank of 0.6% - 1.2% growth for the mexican economy in 2019, changing the 1.1% - 2.1% expected in 2018 and 1.5% - 2.5%, from 1.4% - 2.4% in 2020. Hacienda still believes that next year, the mexican economy will be impulsed by the labour market, local consumption, more credit borrows and investment in infraestructure.
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Macro | Consumption | September 6th, 2019: Private consumption in Mexico grew 1.3% annual rate in June, its best result since last Febuary; compared against May it also showed a 0.7% growth, this after the generalized impulse over the consumption of national goods and services, compensating the felt off the acquisition of foreign goods. This data explains the recovery of the economy growth in June.
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Macro | Investment | September 6th, 2019: Mexico´s fixed investment felt down for its fifth month in a row, this time with a 7.4% annual contraction, the worst since November of 2009. By its components, machinery and equipment felt 11.0% annual rate, also its worst since November 2009 after a strong contraction on imports; otherwise, construction felt in its annual comparison, but monthly it grew 4%.
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Macro | Confidence | September 5th, 2019: Mexico´s consumer confidence grew 0.6% MoM in August, first growth since last February when the index started its down trajectory. In the inside, 3 of its 5 components registered monthly growth, being the component that measures the probability of buying durable goods the one that grew the most.
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Macro | Tariffs | September 4th, 2019: The U.S. will apply compensation tariffs to structural steel made by some firms in Mexico, starting in 10.58% to 30.58%. This tariffs will start on March of 2020, when the Commerce Department published the final statement. Mexico´s Secretary of Economy said that the Government will try to support the affected firms so they can keep competitive.
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Macro | Brexit | September 4th, 2019: Britains Parliament legislators voted 328 to 301 to take over the legislation agenda, this means that they can come up with a new project that pospones Brexit until January 31th, 2020, unless a new agreement will be accepted or they accord a no deal Brexit before October 19th, 2019; In this case Brexit will ocurr on October 31th. Sterling pound reacted in a positive way, appreciating more than 1% against U.S. dollar.
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Sectors | Construction | September 3rd, 2019: Mexico´s Government will pay 1,821 milion pesos to buy from the spanish firm Aleatica (previously OHL) its share from the Toluca´s International Airport, that will be a part of the Metropolitan Airport System including Santa Lucia´s new airport. Government will invest 3,000 million pesos to increase in 14 times Toluca´s capacity, compared to the actual capacity.
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Macro | Expectations | September 2nd, 2019: In the latest Banxico´s expectatives survey, analysts reduced its GDP estimates for 2019 to 0.5% from 0.8% estimated last month, while for 2020 they cut it to 1.4%, from 1.5%. Inflation expectative was reduced to 3.3%, from 3.6% and for 2020 they kept it as 3.6%. Interest rate estimates was lowered to 7.75%, from 8.0% for 2019.
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Macro | Inflation | August 30th, 2019: U.S. sonsumer spending grew 0.6% monthly in July, after a 0.3% growth in June, this growth was explained by higher sales for goods and services. PCE core inflation grew 0.2%, above previous month data, but less than 0.3% estimates; in its annual comparisson it grew 1.6%. This results confirm the weak inflation that the global economy is facing.
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Macro | Banxico | August 29th, 2019: Banxico published its last meeting´s minute, where 4 of the 5 members of the government council voted on favour of cutting the rate to 8.0%. The member that voted against it was Javier Gúzman, arguing that 1) core inflation still high, 2) tax policy for 2020 hasn´t been published and 3) because the market wasn´t expecting a rate cut.
Macro | U.S. GDP | August 29th, 2019: The U.S. GDP was revised slightly down, from a 2.1% in the previous estimation to 2.0% annual rate. This new adjustment according to the reduction of the interest rate, private investment, exports and government expenditures, compensated with the highest grew of private consumption in the last 4 years. U.S. dollar and stock markets recieve this news as positive.
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Macro | Banxico | August 28th, 2019: Banxico published its quarterly report of inflation, where it reduced its growth estimates for 2019 to 0.2% - 0.7%, from 0.8% - 1.8% estimated in May and 2020 to 1.5% - 2.5%, from 1.7% - 2.7%. Inflation estimates were also reduced to 3.2%, from 3.7% previously expected and unchanged for 2020 in 3.0%. Mexican peso is around $20.0 pesos per U.S. dollar.
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Macro | Brexit | August 28th, 2019: Queen Elizabeth aproved Boris Johnson´s require of suspending Parliament during almost 5 weeks (starting on september until half october). Focusing on reach a Brexit agreement before October 31th, this decission avoids the slow negotiation between legislators enough to reach an agreement eith the E.U. Sterling pound felt 0.5% against U.S. dollar.
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Sectors | Energy | August 27th, 2019: Mexico´s president, Mr. Lopez Obrador announced a new agreement with some companies to renegotiate gas pipelines contracts, in that way they could start again the operation. This agreement will reduce the tariff that Mexico´s Federal Energy Comission payed, allowing savings of 4,500 million dollars. this pipelines stop working after the CFE said that these contracts were unfair.
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Macro | G7 | August 26th, 2019: After the G7 meeting during the weekend, stock markets recovered after falling last week, after a few positive conclusions for the meeting: new negotiations between the U.S. and China; U.S. will reunite Iran to solve the nuclear conflict and higher probabilities of reaching a new Brexit deal.
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Macro | GDP Mexico | August 23th, 2019: Mexico´s GDP for the second quarter of 2019 registered a 0.3% annual growth rate, while its quarterly comparisson had no changes. In the inside, secondary activities contracted 1.7% annual rate, whilr primary and tertiary activities grew 1.7% and 1.0% annual rate, respectively.
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Macro | IGAE | August 23th, 2019: Mexico´s economic growth in June was 0.2% in its monthly and annual comparisson, it raises questions that the component with highest weight in the economy as it is the tertiary activities, were the ones with the lowest growth. They registered 0.0% growth in its monthly comparisson and 1.0% annual rate.
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Macro | Inflation | August 22th, 2019: August´s first fortnight inflation felt 0.08% in comparisson with the previous fortnight. In its annual comparisson, inflation was 3.29%, with this result inflation keep its decreasing trajectory after a 3.72% in the previous fortnight. Core inflation was 3.77% annual rate and non core was 1.81% annual rate.
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Sectors | Agro | August 21th, 2019: El U.S. Government and mexican tomatoes´produecers reached an agreement to avoid tariffs for this product imports to the U.S. This negotiation is based on a new revision for the 92% of the cargos that cross the border with tomatoes, in exchange mexican producers will recieve the cost of the tariffs payed since May and the cancelation of this tariffs for the future.
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Macro | FDI | August 20th, 2019: Foreign Direct Investment preliminary data shows a 1.5% annual growth in Mexico´s acquired investment for 2019 first semester. In the inside 75.6% was made of profits re-investment, 23.9% of new investment and 0.5% was helded by accounts of firms with operations in Mexico and other countries.
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Macro | U.S. - China | August 19th, 2019: President Trump talked with Tim Cook, Apple´s CEO, who confirmed that the tariffs applied to China´s imports are affecting the U.S. tech firms. According to this, the U.S. Government will delay 90 days the tariffs imposed to Huawei, this is another parentesis for the U.S. - China trade war.
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Macro | Interest rate | August 15th, 2019: Banxico cut its interest rate in 25 bp for the first time in four years, changing from 8.25% to 8.0%. This decission was backed by four members of the board on favour of cutting it and one against it. After this announcement the mexican peso went from 19.5 to 19.7 pesos by U.S. dollars.
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Macro | Industrial Production | August 15th, 2019: U.S. industrial production contracted 0.2% in July, compared to its previous month, annual comparisson it grew 0.5%, the lowest variation since February 2017. Both results are under the estimates by specialists and were origined by the uncertainty that the trade war between the U.S. and China provoked to the industry.
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Macro | Global | August 14th, 2019: In Germany, GDP contracted 0.1% for the 2Q19, sparkling new fears of facing a recession fo the european country; China´s industrial production grew 4.8% annual rate in July, while investment grew 5.7% annual rate, bothe results were below expectations. In other way, Argentina keeps fighting against the depreciation of its currency.
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Macro | Jobs | August 14th, 2019: Mexico´s unemployment rate (as percentage of the EPA) was 3.5% during 2Q19, slightly over the 3.4% registered in the 1Q19. Otherwise, subocupation rate (people who need to work more time even though they already have a job) went up to 7.7%, highest level for the same period since 2016.
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Macro | Tariffs | August 13th, 2019: U.S. office of comerce said that the cellphones, computers, consoles, toys, shoes and clothes, among others, will be removed of the tariffs list against China, while others will be applied until December 15th and not since September as it was previously announced. Markets are going up after this announcement.
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Macro | U.S. Inflation | August 13th, 2019: CPI inflation in the U.S. grew 0.3% MoM in June, leveled up by energy prices; its annual rate was 1.8%, after the 1.6% registered in June. On its own way, core inflation was 0.3% monthly and 2.2% annually, both results over the previous month data. Unlike the lightly recuperation of the inflation, markets keep thinking of a new interest rate cut for the next month.
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Macro | Markets | August 12th, 2019: Global markets keep falling after a new round of conflicts between China and the U.S. Also, emerging countries were affected after Argentinian market collapsed because of the results that the primary election had, were the populism spectre keeps around latam economies. argentinian peso depreciated around 30% against U.S. dolalr; mexicna peso felt 1.2%.
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Macro | Agenda | August 12th, 2019: This week is Banxico´s monetary policy meeting; the markets count on a 27% probability of an interest rate cut. In the global situation there will be published important data, as the 1Q19 GDP of the Euro Zone , industrial production in China as in the U.S. and CPI inflation in the U.S.
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Macro | Industry | August 9th, 2019: Industrial production in Mexico contrcted by its 8th month on a row, with a -2.1% annual rate in June. Again minery and construction keep production down, while manufacturing grew 0.8% y/y, from 0.4% in May. In its monthly comparisson, industrial activity grew 1.1%, from -2.5% in May, thanks to the growth in all its components.
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Macro | Markets | August 9th, 2019: After the turbulencein the financial markets, assets consider as "refugee" apreciated this week, specially gold, that reached its highes level of the las 6 years. This in the middle of an environment of global uncertainty and a generalized cuts of rates by the Central Banks around the world.
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Macro | Inflation | August 8th, 2019: Mexico´s price level grew 0.38% MoM in July, aligned with the market expectations. In the inside, core inflation was 0.26% because of higher prices in services, specially turism; while non-core reflected higher agro prices, leveled down by energy prices. Anuual inflation was 3.78%, the lowest since 2016.
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Macro | Markets | August 7th, 2019: After the tensions between the U.S. and China, the spread between 10 year and three months yields reached the lowest level since 2007. This is called the inverted yields, and have predicted all recessions in the U.S. for the last 50 years. This reafirms that the markets confirm a new FED´s interest rate cut in September.
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Macro | Private Consumption | August 7th, 2019: Mexico´s private consumption grew 0.3% in annual rate in May, slowing down compared to the 1.2% growth registered in April and representing the worst result since 2009. In the inside, national goods and imports grew less than in April. With this, private consumption grew 0.8% between April and May, less than the registered in the first two months of the 1Q19 of 1.2%.
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Macro | Expectations | August 6th, 2019: Citi´s survey of specialists showed that analysts reduced the PIB estimates for 2019 to 0.6%, from 0.9% and from 1.5% to 1.4% for 2020. Also, inflation was reduced to 3.8%, from 3.9% and still unchanged in 3.7% for 2020. In this environment the majority of the analysts expects two cuts of 25 bp for the interest rate this year, starting on September.
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Macro | U.S. Trade war | August 6th, 2019: Department of Treasury said that China "is manipulating its currency", for the first time since 1994. Bank of China answered that this decission will damage the monetary international order and will provoque chaos in the financial markets, inviting the U.S. to remove their saids. The dispute between both nations has scalated to other terms.
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Macro | Investment | August 6th, 2019: Mexico´s investment contracted 2.7% in May compared to the previous month, after a 1.2% growth in April, this as a result of the 5.5% contraction in the construction, ehile machinery and equipment felt 0.3%. In its annual comparisson, the investment contracted 6.9%, the worst result since September, 2013.
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Macro | China | August 5th, 2019: Because of the trade war, Central Bank of China stablished a new value for its yuan of 6.9295 by dollar, but the market continued the depreciation until 7.05 yuans by dollar, this is the weakest level since 2008. This strategy says that China is willing to keep depreciating its currency to face the effect of the U.S. tariffs.
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Macro | Politics | August 5th, 2019: Mexico´s Secretary, Arturo Herrera, said that Banxico must keep its autonomy and go by the only objective goal that is the price stability. This announcement is positive for the economy, because it demonstrate that the Secretary could be regulating some of the most radical opinions and proposals.
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Macro | Markets | August 5th, 2019: Mexican peso depreciated 1.5% against U.S. dollar after the increasing tension between China and the U.S., this is reducing the appetite for risky assets. In this way, mexican market index IPC is going down and have already passed under 40 thousand units for the first time in 2019.
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Macro | Tariffs | August 2nd, 2019: President Trump threatened China with a new 10% import tariff with an estimated value of $300k million dollars starting in September. This announcement was made between a new series of talks between both countries. China have already said that if this threat is accomplished they will respond in the same way. Markets felt around 1.0%.
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Macro | U.S. Jobs | August 2nd, 2019: U.S. economy added 164 thousand new jobs in July, according to the market expectations, this result still under the 193 thousand jobs created last month; with this result the unemployment rate is 3.7% for its second month in a row. Meanwhile, wages grew 0.3% MoM and 3.2% YoY, both over the estimates, this reinforces the strength of the labour market in the U.S.
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Macro | FED | July 31th, 2019: The FED decided to cut the interest rate in 25 bp to a new range of 2.0% to 2.25% (two members voted on favour to keep it unchanged). The announcement was a result of the global risks, the absent of an increasing inflation rate and the growing uncertainty around the economy. With the two members that were not on favour of this decission, the market reduced the probability to a new rate cut in September.
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Macro | Mexico GDP | July 31th, 2019: According to preliminary data, Mexico´s economic activity grew 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and 0.4% annual rate, this after the tertiary activities could compensate the recoil in secondary and primary activities. The result surprised the analysts consensus who expected a 0.2% contraction compared to the previous quarter, this would meant a recession for the mexican economy.
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Macro | U.S. Consumer Spending | July 30th, 2019: U.S. consumer spending, that explains more than 60% of the economic activity, grew 0.3% MoM in June because of the growth in services that compensated the decrease in car sales. With this, PCE inflation was 1.4% annual rate and core inflation was 1.6%, both results were minor to the previous data published in May, this confirms the speculation of a new rate cut by the FED.
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Macro | Mexico | July 29th, 2019: Mexico´s Secretary of State announced new packages of stimulus to the economy focusing on new investment, speeding up new jobs, 2020's bidding processes and resources to the development bank. This activities will use a $485 thousand million pesos and will start applying in the short term.
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Macro | Pemex | July 29th, 2019: Mexico´s Secretary of Energy, Rocío Nahle, said that the construction of the new refinery in Dos Bocas, Tabasco will start on August 1st 2019, as a result of the succesful bidding process to adjudicate the construction packages. The participants had to add a 50% minimum of National Content to achieve a contract.
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Macro | Unemployment | July 29th, 2019: Mexico´s unemployment rate still unchanged in June, registered 3.5% for its third month in a row. Also subocupation rate, that considers people that wants to work more and already have a job, went up to 7.6% from 7.5% in May and from 6.8% reached in June of 2018.
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Macro | Brexit | July 29th, 2019: Brexit fears about not reaching an agreement are increasing, this after the new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, said that he will only start negotiations with the EU leaders if they accept some key agreements in the negotiation, that they have already deny to do. Sterling Pound felt to its lowest level until 2016.
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Macro | Economic growth | July 26th, 2019: Mexico´s economy contracted 0.3% in May, compared to the same month of last year. Industrial activity contraction´s took down the economy´s behaviour, mainly mining and construction sectors that felt down 8.9% and 9.0% annual rate; while services grew up 1.1% annual rate. In its monthly comparisson, the indicator averaged 0.0% growth between April and May.
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Macro | U.S. GDP | July 26th, 2019: U.S. economic growth slowed down less than expected in the second quarter of 2019 with a 2.1% growth against 1.8% expected, thanks to the consumer spending growth of 4.3% annual rate, from 1.1% in the previous quarter, this lowered the effect that caused the contraction in private investment and exports. Besides this, market still expecting a rate cut for next week.
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Macro | Private Consumption | July 25th, 2019: Retail sales in Mexico grew 2.7% YoY in May, after the 2.3% growth in April, this as a result of the increases in the sales of department stores and self service stores. In its monthly comparisson retails sales grew 0.7%, this average a 0.8% growth between April and May. This is a positive result for the mexican economy that is seeking to recover to avoid recession.
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Macro | ECB | July 25th, 2019: ECB is keeping its stimulus programme unchanged, but suggesting that it could change in the next months because of the complications for the economy, mainly the inflation. In a long term outlook, the Central Bank blew away the possibility that the interest rate will raise next year and they even could cut it during the year.
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Macro | Inflation | July 24th, 2019: In July´s first fortnight, Mexico´s inflation rate grew 0.27% MoM, this result was lightly higher than the 0.26% expected. Core inflation summed up 14 bp, while non core summed the 13 extra bp. With this, annual inflation lowered to 3.84% from 3.89% registered in the previous fortnight.
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Macro | United Kingdom | July 24th, 2019: Boris Johnson was declared as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in substitution of Theresa May. Boris have been one of the biggest Brexit´s promotor and is convinced that the UK will leave de European Union in October 31, when the agreement between the two parties comes to an end. Sterling Pound reacted favourably and apreciated 1.0% against the US dollar.
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Macro | IMF | July 23th, 2019: In its quarterly meeting, the IMF reduced its global GDP forecast for 2019 to 3.2%, from 3.3%, and 2020 to 3.5%, from 3.6%. The highest cut applied to emerging markets, Brazil and Mexico primarily; they are anticipating a 0.8% growth in 2019, from the previous 2.1% for the first country, while Mexico´s growth is expected to be 0.9%, from 1.6%.
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Macro | Expectations | July 22th, 2019: Citi´s expectations survey for Mexico, show a reduction in the forecasted GDP again, for 2019 to 0.9%, from 1.0%, and 2020 to 1.5%, from 1.7%. Inflation expectatives still 3.7% and 3.6% for each year. Interest rate still 8.0% expected for the end of the year, but Banxico could cut it in September.
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Macro | Mexico | July 22th, 2019: Mexico´s Chancellor, Marcelo Ebrard, declared a reduction of 36.2% in the migrant flow that come into Mexico to the U.S., this since the agreement that both government had on June 7th. This actions will continue another 45 days, until the new reunion in Washington to keep track on te results of the strategy.
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Macro | FED | July 19th, 2019: NY FED´s president showed his concerns about the inflation expectations, expressing that they should be anticipating to the economy with small actions and increase them gradually according to the crisis. After this, markets are expecting a 60% probability of cutting rates in 50 bp during the next FED´s meeting, the other 40% are expecting a rate cut of 25 bp.
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Macro | Mexico | July 18th, 2019: Mexico´s Congress ratified Arturo Herrera as the new Secretary of Finance. This approval showed 341 votes on favour, 74 against it and 2 abstencions. Those Congressmen against this propposal argumented that it isn´t healthy to change twice in a year such an important position.
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Macro | FED | July 17th, 2019: FED´s Beige Book recent edition, explained the U.S.´ moderate economic growth besides the commercial tension with other countries. It also highlited that the perspectives still positive over the economic future. Although this comunicate was more optimistic, implicit probability of cutting rates in the next meeting still 100%.
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Macro | Pemex | July 16th, 2019: Pemex unveiled its new bussines plan in which asks for the reduction of tariffs around 128t million pesos and new resources from the Federal Government of 141t million pesos for the next 3 years. Private capital will be limited under services contracts for the oil production. Mexican peso reacted in a negative way, because this plan raise a lot of doubts for the investors.
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Macro | US | July 15th, 2019: In other attempt to stop the inmigrant flow into the U.S., the Congress could approve a new application which will require that the inmigrants ask for previous assylum in a country previously crossed like Mexico, Guatemala, etc., before they ask for it in the U.S. This measure could start applying since tomorrow.
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Macro | Banxico | July 11th, 2019: Banxico focused on the weakness of the mexican economy in its latest publication, highlightning that some of the indicators are already showing the recession. This scenario, added to a moderated Fed´s posture and the decreasing inflation, allowed that one of the members voted on favour to cut the rate 25 bp in the last meeting, while the rest choosed to keep it unchanged.
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Macro | FED | July 10th, 2019: FED´s Chairman, Jerome Powell, announced his preocupation over commercial politics and world economy that is affecting the U.S. growth, adding that the Fed will be ready to act. This commentary, summed to the publication of the Fed´s meeting resume, strengthned the expectations of a new cut in the interest rate.
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Macro | USD/MXN | July 9th, 2019: Mexico´s Secretary of Finance, Mr. Carlos Urzúa, quit his job after some difference between him and the dessicions of other members in the government. Mexican peso depreciated more than 1.0% against U.S. dollar after this news.
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Macro | Tariffs | July 9th, 2019: U.S. government announced a new round of tariffs that will apply to steel products; this measure will be affecting companies that the U.S. government accuse of making unloyal practices in its doing business. Mexican authorities recognize this new tariffs and don´t see them as a threat to ease the USMCA.
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Macro | Inflation | July 9th, 2019: According to the estimates, Mexico´s inflation went up 0.06% in June, compared to its precious month, this result was derived from the decrease in the non-core component of 0.68% and the rise of the core component of 0.30%. In its annual comparisson, inflation grew 3.95%, its lowest evel since february, but core inflation grew up to 3.85%, from 3.77% in may, after food prices reach its highest level since March 2018.
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Macro | Car Industry | July 8th, 2019: Car production in Mexico felt 4.4% annual rate in June, while its exports grew 1.7% in an annual rate. This year mexican car industry has produced 0.7% more cars than in the first semester of 2018, while exports have augmented 3.1% in annual rate for the first six months of the year.
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Macro | Jobs | July 5th, 2019: U.S. economy added 224 thousand new jobs in June, above the 160 thousand expected and the generation of the previous month in 72 thousand, this is a signal of an atypical weakness in May. In other way, average wages per hour grew 0.2% MoM, under the 0.3% expected, this anticipates low pressure of the salaries over the inflation.
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Macro | Investment | July 5th, 2019: Mexico´s investment went up 2.5% MoM in April, but this wasn´t enough to compensate the 3.5% contraction registered in March. Looking at the inside, construction grew 3.0% MoM, while machinery and equipment did the same in a 1.3% rate. In its annual comparisson, investment felt down 2.4%, summing 3 months in a row of contractions.
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Macro | Consumer Confidence | July 4th, 2019: Mexican consumer confidence felt 1.6% MoM in June, acummulating 4 months in a row going down from its historical maximum level in February. In the inside, the most affected component was the posibility to acquire durable goods (-5.7% m/m), while the gratest improval was the recent economic situation.
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Macro | Mexico | July 3rd, 2019: Mexico´s National Defense Secretary announced that the new airport of Santa Lucía will be ready in 2022 and not in 2021 as it was planned. The construction have been delayed because the Environmental Impact Manifestation is not ready, recently a federal judge suspended the construction until this act concludes.
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Macro | Global | July 2nd, 2019: Christine Lagarde quit to the IMF, she was nominated to sucess Mario Draghi as president of the European Central Bank since October 2019. European markets reacted positively.
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Macro | CFE | July 2nd, 2019: The Mexico´s Federal Electricity Comission started a process against the companies that built Texas - Tuxpan pipeline, and is carrying other 7 lawsuits against other companies to cancel their contracts. This implies that CFE will have to pay for the delay and shows difficulties for the business environment in the sector.
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Macro | OPEC | July 2nd, 2019: In its last meeting, OPEC decided to keep the cutting their production until March 2020, looking for a stabilization of barrel prices in a weak environment for the global economy and the U.S. production going up. WTI felt 3.0% because of the results of the companies.
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Macro | G20 | June 28th, 2019: To day starts the G20 reunion in Japan. Markets keep attention into the possibility of a U.S. - China agreement that helps diminishing the global uncertainty around international commerce.
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Macro | Consumer Spending | June 28th, 2019: U.S. consumer spending grew 0.4% MoM in May, while personal spendings grew 0.5% MoM. In other way, PCE inflation was 1.5% annual rate, from 1.6% registered in April, while core inflation still 1.6% for its second month in arow. This result stills far from the Fed´s objective rate, that reduced its inflation estimates to 1.5%, from 1.8%.
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Macro | US Growth | June 27th, 2019: The final revision for the U.S. economic growth resulted in a 3.1% annual rate for the first quarter. Otherwise, consumer expenditures went down, while private investment was corrected on an upside way. The markets showed a minor reaction because this result was widely expected for analysts.
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Macro | Interest rate | June 27th, 2019: Banxico decided to keep unchanged Mexico´s interest rate by majority in its last meeting, the rate is 8.25%, just one member was on favour to cut it. The announcement let us see that some risks remains around the economy and some of them are increasing, even tough others are diminishing, what could carry the next decission into a rate cut.
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Macro | Jobs | June 26th, 2019: Mexico´s unemployment rate slghtly went up to 3.48% in May, from 3.45% registered in April. Also, subemployment rate increased to 7.51%, from 7.40%, while participation rate decreased to 59.8%, from 59.9%, this suggests a lower rythm of job generation, as a result of the slowdown in the economy.
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Macro | Consumption | June 25th, 2019: Mexico´s retail sales grew 0.7% MoM and 2.2% YoY in April. In the inside, the greatest growth for one of its components was department stores that grew 3.9% YoY, followed by cars with 3.0% YoY plus food and beverages with a 1.5% annual growth. Analizing the cumulate data for April and March trying to unseasonalize it, retail sales grew 1.5% at annual rate.
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Macro | Inflation | June 24th, 2019: Mexico´s inflation went up 0.01%, below 0.08% expected, in the other hand the annual comparisson was 4.0%, from 4.13% registered on the previous fortnight. Also, core inflation went from 3.78% to 3.87% annual rate, this data will surely influence Banxico´s decission progammed for this week.
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Macro | IGAE | June 24th, 2019: Mexico´s economic growth was 0.1% MoM in April, leaving behind the 0.5% contraction of March. In the annual comparisson the variation was 0.3%, against -0.6% in March. In its activity component, primary activity grew 1.9% annual rate, secondary activities annual rate was -0.4% and tertiary activities went up +0.5%. This growth wasn´t strong enough to reverse March´s bad behaviour.
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Macro | Mexico | June 21th, 2019: Economic growth by Aggerate Demand was 0.1% annual rate in 1Q19. The components that took it down were Investment that contracted 3.2% YoY, also government consumption with a -1.3% YoY; while the components that impulse it were Private Consumption with a +0.2% YoY growth and Exports with a +1.0% YoY growth.
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Macro | Mexico | June 21th, 2019: In the latest survey of specialists organized by Citi, analyst cut their estimates for 2019 GDP to 1.2%, from 1.3% and 2020 GDP to 1.7%, from 1.8%. Inflation estimates for 2019 was kept in 3.8% and3.6% in 2020. Interest rate estimates still 8.0%, but the number of analysts who believes Banxico won´t cut the rate this year went up.
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Macro | Pemex | June 20th, 2019: Pemex notified that Dos Bocas refinery would implicate effects for the environment, but these effects will be managed, so the project is possible. This study will go to the ASEA (Energy Sector´s environmental regulator) to its approval, a step necessary to start the construction. Also, Sener invited 7 firms to the bidding process of the 6 packages that will complete the refinery.
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Macro | USMCA | June 19th, 2019: Mexico´s Senate ratified the USMCA, making Mexico the first of the three countries that approved the new agreement between North America´s nations. It is time for the president to sign the agreement and publish it in the Official Diary of the Federation. Mexican peso reacted possitively to this ratification.
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Macro | Mexico | June 19th, 2019: According to Mexico´s Social Services Institution (IMSS) data, 3,983 new jobs were created in may, this means an 88.2% reduction compared to the 33,966 jobs created in May 2018. It is common that the job generation is lowest in may as a seasonal effect, but this is the lowest result since 2015.
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Macro | FED | June 19th, 2019: In the latest FED´s meeting, the interest rate was kept unchanged between 2.25% and 2.50%, only one member voted on favour of cutting the rate. The announcement shows less optimissm for the U.S. economic growth and a higher preocupation of the risks that are affecting the economy.
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Macro | FED | June 19th, 2019: U.S. FED published its economic outlook. They kept the 2.1% annual growth estimates for 2019 and increased 2020 to 2.0%, from 1.9%. Inflation was adjusted down to 1.5%, from 1.8% and for 2020 it went to 1.9%, from 2.0%. For the interest rate 8 members aren´t expecting any changes this year, while the other 8 are looking for a cut.
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Macro | Industry | June 14th, 2019: This week China and the U.S. show the results of their industrial production in May. In the U.S. a surprising 0.4% growth MoM, against 0.2% estimated and 2.0% annual growth, from 0.9% in April. China grew 5.0% annual rate, against 5.4% estimated; this is evidence that the Asian giant is suffering because of the impact that the commercial conflict with the U.S. caused in its productive chain.
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Macro | Commerce | June 11th, 2019: ANTAD´s stores report a same stores annual growth of 5.4%; without inflation the annual rate was 1.1%, its best behaviour since June 2018. The component that grew the most were Department stores. This is a good result within the complex environment and slowing down economy that Mexico is facing.
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Macro | Mexico | June 11th, 2019: Industrial production in Mexico went up 1.5% MoM in April, reversing March´s 1.2% contraction. In the inside, electricity and construction impulse this growth 1.6% y 2.2%, respectively; in the other hand manufacturing grew 0.6% MoM, after a great performance in the maunfactiring of transport equipment.
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Macro | US jobs | June 7th, 2019: 75 thousand new jobs were added to the U.S. economy in May, this result is way down the estimates of 185 thousand jobs. On the other hand, salaries grew 0.2% MoM and 3.1% at annual rate, both results were better than expected. The pesimistic analysis over this data make the dollar went down in 0.6% vs the previous day.
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Macro | Mexico | June 7th, 2019: Mexico´s inflation contracted 0.29% in May, more than the estimated by various analysts whom anticipated a 0.23% contraction; besides, core inflation went up 0.16%, against 0.15% expected, food prices keep going up pressing core inflation in the same direction. The annual variation registered 4.28%, lower than its previous 4.41% in April.
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Macro | PEMEX | June 6th, 2019: Fitch Ratings reduced Pemex´s rating to BB+, from BBB-, this set the speculative form of the national firm with no investment posibilities and with a 'negative' outlook. Fitch considers that the new measures took by the mexican government are not enough; also, They warend about more rating cuts if the situation does not change.
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Macro | Mexico | June 6th, 2019: Mexico´s investment felt down 3% MoM in March, this represents the second month in a row in contraction. Construction still the most affected component (-4.0% monthly), while machinery and equipment felt 0.9% MoM. This results confirm the weakness that the investment is showing in every region of the country.
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Macro | Downgrade | June 5th, 2019: Fitch Ratings dowgraded Mexico´s sovereign debt rating to BBB, from BBB+ with a 'stable' outlook. Also, Moody's changed its outlook to 'negative', from 'stable', and keep its rating as A3. The reasons behind this changes were: Pemex´s financial status, the recent slowdown of the economy and now, the uncertainty that the recently announced US tariffs caused.
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Macro | US Tariffs | June 5th, 2019: Mexican authorities keep negotiations going on with US authorities to reach a new agreement that avoids the imposition of new tariffs to mexican imports of 5%, that could start since next monday. If a new agreement isn´t reached, Mexico may announce a new list of imports from the US that will be charged with tariffs. Mexican peso lost 1% against US dollar again.
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Macro | Consumer Confidence | June 4th, 2019: Mexican consumer confidence felt down for the third month in a row during may, in a 2.5% MoM. This after a contraction in all of its components, the one that contracted the most was future economic expectations that felt 4.0% MoM. Consumer confidence has moderated since its highest level reached in february 2019.
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Macro | Mexico | Jun 3rd, 2019: Banxico´s last especialist survey showed, a new cut for the GDP growth in 2019 to 1.35%, from 1.5%, and to 1.7%, from 1.8% for 2020. Inflation estimates for 2019 went up to 3.75%, from 3.70%. Finally, interest rate expectatives for 2019 stays at 8.0%, but raised up to 7.50%, from 7.25% for 2020.
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Macro | US Tariffs | May 31th, 2019: President Donald Trump announced that since June 10th it will be a 5.0% tariff to all mexican imports and if Mexico can´t stop the Centroamerican inmigrant flow to the US, this tariffs will keep growing up. This generated a depreciation for the mexican peso, which lost more than 2% after the announcement.
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| Macro | USMCA | May 30th, 2019: Mexico´s Government will send to the Senate the new USMCA treaty, following what Canada did at the beggining of the week, to ratificate the new agreement by its own legislative process. This announcement was well recieved by the the financial markets, with a mexican peso apraciation against US dollar and the IPC going up. |